It seems that SMEs need to act aggressively here and start communicating with the USA and Europe now.
Obstacles:
Fatigue from going through a difficult economic period.
The vacillation that comes with being in survival mode for too long.
Shattering the self-confidence of SMEs.
Weak muscles in communication and sales. (Chronic)Trump's election means a new era in the world in macro terms. So what exactly does it mean for SMEs in Turkey?
Turkey's Political Risks
First of all, it should be noted that Türkiye is one of the countries with the highest political risks. There was a priest crisis, a plane crash, it could happen again. These are always valid, Trump or anyone else. But Trump's diplomatic instability increased this possibility. It is not expected to be this sharp in his second term.
He was personally satisfied with it.
Moreover, he now shares the stage with Elon Musk.
It is thought that he would spend more time on internal balances and leave external balances more comfortably because he did not have the power to change internal balances in his first term. Now there is.
Russia-USA Tension and Its Effects on Turkey
What is felt most for Türkiye right now: SMEs, which have benefited greatly from the conflict between Russia and the USA, will lose the opportunities here.
Trump said he will end the war in Ukraine. But we do not know whether the embargo between Europe and Russia will end.
We should not forget: When Trump was first elected, Europe started talking about a "Europe without the USA". How the end of the war will affect the economy cannot be interpreted very precisely until there is a statement from Europe.
The Unsustainability of the US Economy
Actually, we don't know for sure whether it is related to Trump or not, because there is an unsustainable economy in the USA. The FED chairman also stated this clearly. This will eventually be reflected in the world. Trump may even be just a symptom. In short, it was inevitable that the balance would change. It can be seen as natural that the world searches for a new balance every twenty years.
Many countries such as China and Russia were developing strategies for this anticipated situation. Currently, we only know about the US move. The moves of other countries are not yet clear.
US Embargo on China and Possible Opportunities for Türkiye
The USA's embargo on China is a move that will increase purchases from Turkey. Yes but how much?
The following should be noted here:
China has a very lax policy in trade. It will definitely break the embargo. By sending it via another country instead of Made in China, it can produce under that country's name and circumvent embargoes. Or any other way. But we don't know yet to what extent it will penetrate. How much will this cost? These are incalculable numbers that claim to be calculable. So we have to wait and see.
The Importance of Trump for SMEs
Trump is very good news for SMEs that have the potential to do value-added business incubated in Turkey. Why?
There is a high probability of capital flows to Turkey in the new period. It looks like Türkiye will breathe a sigh of relief. I don't think the Turkish lira will lose much value (I hope). In conclusion:
Low value-added products, despite the embargo with China may not race.
Türkiye can quickly capture the market for medium or high value-added products (products that are difficult to break the embargo due to brand recognition).
So there seems to be an opportunity here. There are also SMEs in Turkey that are ready for this.
Here, how much Europe will stand behind the USA will also greatly affect the volume of the opportunity.
Obstacles and Strategic Recommendations for SMEs
Unfortunately, close and fast communication with the nearby geography does not exist when it comes to developed countries. While SMEs are close to nearby regions such as Russia and Iraq, large companies are generally on the offensive in Europe and the USA. The presence of SMEs here is somewhat annoyed.
Although SMEs and commercial organizations try to do a lot on these issues, this is an issue that each company should put its own focus on.
Pessimistic attitude in the country and resistance to new ideas. (Chronic)
Difficulty finding motivation.
Not being able to foresee the future financially (yes, the beginning of everything)
Possible Strategies:
Finding points where you can start small.
Trying to develop flexible thinking skills.
Developing the instinct to shape according to macro opportunities.
Don't leave business development on dusty shelves.
Acquire skills in calculating cost, profit, loss and risk.
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If you are an SME that produces value-added products, we would like to see if we can get to know you and create an opportunity with a 30-minute meeting. info@simyadanismanlik.com
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